New Federal Contractors — December 29, 2025

9 contracts totaling $409M (avg $45M) under NAICS 611519 to 8(a)/HUBZone/SDVOSB firms like Serrato, Bizzell, with $300M+ outlayed and options for $100M+ upside through 2026-2027.

Contracts like Johnson Controls ($242M pot.), Ameresco ($162M pot.), Black Hills ($103M pot.) provide 20-25yr revenue to 2045-2046 in NAICS 541330/221122 for GSA/DOI/VA facilities.

IRS Oracle ($73M pot.), Interior IT ($74M pot.), USPTO compute ($66M pot.) awards to small biz like Affigent, Nuaxis signal multi-year NAICS 541519 revenue through 2026-2028.

$65M fiber optic install to Chartis signals new FY26 spending on linear ground detection systems (PSC 6015).

Firm fixed price dominant (18/30 contracts); cost overruns threaten margins on long-duration awards like Job Corps (to 2027) and energy retrofits (to 2046).

Low/no outlays on 12 contracts ($0 on 8, incl. new awards like Chartis $65M, Beast Code $41M) signal funding delays.

Geopolitical exposure in DoS Iraq medical support ($187M pot. to KBR) and DOE/NNSA facilities amid long tenors.

Unexercised options total >$700M across portfolio (e.g., $106M Ameresco, $59M Beast Code, $151M KBR), 40%+ avg upside on obligations.

Set-aside favoritism for 8(a)/SDB/SDVOSB in DOL (~70% of Job Corps value) and DHS/VA positions repeat winners for $500M+ pipeline.

Public parents of winners (Black Hills, Johnson Controls, KBR, Ameresco) undervalue long-tail fed revenues to 2040s.

65% of top 10 value ($410M/9 awards) to small biz JVs/nonprofits for NAICS 611519 ops at 7+ centers through 2026-27.

>$240M obligated (pot. $600M+) in GSA/DOI/VA/DOE for retrofits/M&V to net-zero/2046.

4 awards totaling $141M (neutral signals) for space missions/data to 2028 under non-competed FFRDC.

{"entity"=>"Johnson Controls Govt Systems", "reason"=>"$242M pot. GSA energy contract to 2046, only $3.4M outlayed vs $65M obligated.", "trigger"=>"option exercises >$100M"}

{"entity"=>"Ameresco Inc", "reason"=>"$162M pot. DOI retrofit to 2039 aligns with net-zero; public ticker exposure.", "trigger"=>"outlay acceleration"}

{"entity"=>"DOL Job Corps small biz cluster (Serrato, Bizzell et al.)", "reason"=>"$409M cluster with 75%+ outlay progress signals follow-on potential post-2026.", "trigger"=>"extension awards"}

{"entity"=>"KBR Services", "reason"=>"$187M pot. DoS Iraq med support; high subawards (87% of obligation).", "trigger"=>"initial outlays"}