New Federal Contractors — December 25, 2025

Five DHS awards (TSA, ICE, CBP) total $739M obligation for screening tech, radios, AWS, and HR support, with Leidos/Analogic/Four Points leading execution.

NASA commitments through 2025-2028 provide $646M obligation for engineering, safety, and space projects, with strong outlays ($155M+ on RSI, $159M on Axient).

Four DOE contracts for remediation, analysis, and support total $530M through 2028, with 70%+ outlays on KeyLogic/Navarro indicating reliable cash flow.

Vertex ($292M obligation, $3.7B potential) and Modern Tech ($135M, $625M potential) highlight training/aerospace upside to 2029.

Zero outlays on 4 contracts totaling $921M (Vertex, Tribalco, Modern Tech, Lumen portions) signal potential funding delays amid short-term performance pressure.

Firm-fixed-price structures on 8 awards ($1.1B obligation) expose contractors to cost overruns over 2-10 year periods.

Set-aside reliance (8/19 awards) limits scalability for small/8(a)/SDVOSB winners post-period.

$2.5B+ in unexercised options across 15 contracts, led by Vertex ($3.4B pot), Peraton ($363M), Modern Tech ($490M).

Set-aside advantages for disadvantaged firms (9/19 awards, $1.1B) in DOE/NASA/DHS position for repeat wins.

High outlay progress (avg 60% on mature contracts) on $1.8B obligation supports steady revenue through 2028.

26% of value ($789M) in comms, screening (CT/radios), AWS for TSA/ICE/CBP underscores border/airport resilience focus.

33% of value ($1B) in space/engineering/environmental through 2028 reflects sustained science/energy priorities.

47% of awards (9/19, $1.1B) to 8(a)/SDVOSB/woman-owned firms in competitive categories.

{"entity"=>"Vertex Aerospace", "reason"=>"$292M obligation/$3.7B potential largest award; zero outlay risks delays but warfighter training critical.", "trigger"=>"First outlay >$50M or option exercise"}

{"entity"=>"Modern Technology Solutions", "reason"=>"$135M/$625M GSA Artemis R&D as small biz; 29 subawards signal scaling potential to 2029.", "trigger"=>"Outlay start post-Jan 2025 or subaward expansions"}

{"entity"=>"Peraton Enterprise Solutions", "reason"=>"$121M/$484M VA IT managed services with long extension to 2028.", "trigger"=>"Option funding or current end extension beyond 2026"}

{"entity"=>"Analogic Corp (ALOT)", "reason"=>"Public firm with $128M/$200M TSA CT scanners; $66M outlayed amid security tech theme.", "trigger"=>"Earnings beat on federal revenue or 2032 extension"}