Executive Summary
These 12 civilian contracts represent $2,556,508,585 in total obligations with 0 defense-related awards, concentrated in agencies like Department of State ($1.07B across CGI Federal $620M and AAR $449M), HHS ($434M via Agiliti Health $327M and DLH $107M), and NASA ($327M from Amentum $227M and Axiom Space $100M). Dominant themes include IT/facilities management, medical equipment maintenance, and aviation/space support, with 7 bullish signals on strong outlay execution (e.g., 84-100% funded on top awards). Highest-conviction bullish signal is AAR Government Services' $449M State aviation maintenance contract with $290M outlayed and low pricing risk through 2024. Key watch item: Multiple high-materiality contracts (CGI Federal, AAR, Agiliti) face recompete risks post-2024 maturities amid firm fixed price execution pressures.
Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from April 15, 2026.
Investment Signals(7)
- AAR Government Services secures $449M State aviation maintenance with $290M outlayed(HIGH)▲
AAR's cost-plus fixed fee delivery order shows strong execution with $290M outlayed of $449M obligated (potential $500M options) through option year three, plus $87M subawards indicating steady worldwide aviation support demand.
- Agiliti Health advances $327M HHS ventilator maintenance with $272M outlayed(HIGH)▲
Agiliti's firm fixed price contract for HHS ASPR has $272M outlayed of $327M obligated (potential $494M options), signaling robust demand in medical equipment maintenance through 2026-2028.
- ABT Global locks in $279M USAID malaria vector control through 2027(MEDIUM)▲
ABT's cost-plus fixed fee contract has $160M outlayed of $279M obligated (potential $810M options), reflecting sustained USAID funding for professional technical services over five years.
- Skanska USA Civil Northeast wins $149M DOD contract(MEDIUM)▲
Skanska's $149M award from Department of Defense underscores construction/infrastructure demand, though details limited.
- DLH advances $107M NIH IT management with $86M outlayed(HIGH)▲
DLH's firm fixed price BPA call has $86M outlayed of $107M obligated (potential $112M options) through 2026, highlighting steady NIH demand for IT facilities management.
- CGI Federal's $620M State passport services maturing with $191M outlayed(MEDIUM)▲
CGI's time and materials order has $191M outlayed of $620M obligated (potential $844M options) through 2024, but lower-than-expected annual outlays (~$32M/year) signal execution slowdown.
- Amentum's $227M NASA facilities at high firm fixed price risk(HIGH)▲
Amentum has $139M outlayed of $227M obligated through 2026, but firm fixed price structure elevates performance risk on long-term 10.5-year facilities support.
Risk Flags(3)
- Execution[HIGH RISK]▼
Firm fixed price structures on Agiliti Health $327M HHS, DLH $107M NIH, Amentum $227M NASA, and Axiom Space $100M NASA expose contractors to high performance/cost overrun risks amid partial outlays.
- Competition[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Maturing contracts like CGI Federal $620M State (ends 2024), AAR $449M State (2024), and LMI $94M DHS (2026) face recompete uncertainty with no extension visibility.
- Concentration[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Subawards erode net revenue: AAR $87M (19%), ABT $64M (23%), LMI $28M (29%), reducing prime retention on large civilian awards.
Opportunities(3)
- ◆
Agiliti Health options to $494M and extension to 2028 on HHS ventilator maintenance; Axiom Space $72M unexercised options to $172M through 2028.
- ◆
ABT Global potential to $810M options on USAID malaria control through 2027.
- ◆
General Dynamics IT options to $71M on GSA service desk through 2025.
Sector Themes(3)
- ◆
HHS awards to Agiliti Health $327M (ventilators/PAPR) and DLH $107M (NIH IT) total $434M with 80%+ outlays, signaling sustained demand for medical maintenance and IT support.
- ◆
Department of State dominates with $1.07B to CGI Federal $620M (passports/IT) and AAR $449M (aviation), 50%+ outlays but 2024 ends loom.
- ◆
$327M across Amentum $227M (facilities to 2026) and Axiom $100M (EVA to 2028) with solid outlays ($139M+$77M), firm fixed price.
Watch List(4)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"CGI Federal Inc.", "reason"=>"$620M State obligation with only $191M outlayed and 2024-05-09 end", "trigger"=>"outlay progress, recompete post-2024-05-09"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"AAR Government Services", "reason"=>"$449M State with $290M outlayed, extensions beyond 2024-05-31", "trigger"=>"option year four, subaward impacts"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Agiliti Health", "reason"=>"$327M HHS with $272M outlayed, options to $494M and 2028 extension", "trigger"=>"additional outlays, 2026-08-27 completion"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Department of State", "reason"=>"$1.07B concentration in maturing contracts (CGI, AAR) ending 2024", "trigger"=>"recompete announcements"}
Get daily alerts with 7 investment signals, 3 risk alerts, 3 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 12 filings
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