Contract Deobligations Alert — February 12, 2026

AMI Metals secures massive definitive contract for Southwest border barriers, dwarfing others at 36% of total value.

Lockheed Martin ($191M IRIS), SAIC ($97M SAS2), and MIT ($109M TESS) highlight sustained funding for R&D with $33M-$87M outlayed.

Knight Point ($156M USCG), Chenega ($140M FLETC), and Arora ($54M ICE medical) underscore multi-year commitments with 20-70% outlayed.

LS Technologies ($94M), Raytheon ($78M STARS), Concept Solutions ($65M C3) show $240M+ in aviation IT/eng with 70-90% outlayed to 2026.

Subawards average 40-70% of obligations (e.g., ManTech 73%, General Dynamics 85%), compressing prime margins.

$0 outlayed on 20% of top awards (AMI $1.45B, ECS $177M, Relyant $71M), signaling funding delays amid future start dates.

Firm fixed price on 40% of contracts (e.g., Knight Point $156M, Chenega $140M) exposes to cost overruns in long-term IT/construction.

Extended terms to 2027-2029 (60% of value) vulnerable to FY2027 budget shifts or program cuts at DHS/NASA.

Heavy subcontracting (avg $20-80M per large award) risks prime displacement on follow-ons.

Options exercise on 70% of contracts adds $1B+ upside (e.g., SAIC to $170M, Parsons to $184M, Arora to $236M).

DHS border/IT and FAA modernization sustain $2B+ backlog for govcon IT primes.

Small/8(a)/veteran firms (30% of records) positioned for set-asides with $500M+ obligations.

Job Corps/training contracts ($180M+) from DOL signal steady niche revenue to 2027.

IT/programming/eng services (NAICS 5413/5415) comprise 60%+ of $4B value across DHS/FAA/DOJ, with 80% multi-year to 2026+.

$800M+ NASA awards to Lockheed/SAIC/MIT extend missions (IRIS/TESS/SAS2) through 2027 despite cost-no-fee structures.

$2B+ in border steel, USCG IT, ICE medical/security signals infrastructure push.

{"entity"=>"AMI Metals", "reason"=>"$1.45B (36% total value) obligation with 2026-02-11 award date and $0 outlayed.", "trigger"=>"outlay >$100M or contract modification"}

{"entity"=>"Lockheed Martin (LMT)", "reason"=>"$191M IRIS to 2027 with options to $199M amid NASA explorer missions.", "trigger"=>"option exercise or NASA budget pass"}

{"entity"=>"SAIC (SAIC)", "reason"=>"$97M NASA SAS2 with $87M outlayed and $170M ceiling potential.", "trigger"=>"earnings backlog update showing NASA growth"}

{"entity"=>"ASGN (ECS Federal)", "reason"=>"$177M FBI IT to 2027 with $406M ceiling but $0 outlayed.", "trigger"=>"initial outlays signaling ramp"}

{"entity"=>"DHS Border Programs", "reason"=>"Concentrated $1.7B+ across steel/IT/security amid policy shifts.", "trigger"=>"supplemental appropriation announcements"}