Contract Deobligations Alert — February 07, 2026

Three contracts totaling $1.27B obligation (ERAM/ERIDS FAA, NCI HHS, GSA engineering) with $678M+ outlayed signal decade-long revenue in aviation/defense/health IT.

Brasfield & Gorrie ($382M GSA ports/courthouse), HCBeck ($221M CDC), Stronghold ($217M NPS) show 70-85% outlay progress on firm fixed price builds to 2027-2029.

HII ($493M), Kratos ($338M SBIR), BAE ($116M NASA) deliver $947M obligation with options to $1.9B through 2026-2030 in engineering/R&D.

Remote Medicine ($484M USAID HIV kits), Synergy ($273M USDA IT), North Wind ($171M DOE remediation), Alvarez ($130M VA LAN) total $1.06B with 50-90% outlays.

Firm fixed price structures across 8 contracts ($1.6B+ value) expose contractors to cost overruns on long-horizon builds/remediation to 2027+.

Subaward dependencies in 10 contracts total $700M+ (e.g., 439 for Kratos, 191 for Leidos GSA) risk delays if subcontractors underperform.

Zero/low outlays in new awards (e.g., HII $0, Brasfield GSA $0, Leidos Biomed $24M) signal funding delays amid FY26 budget uncertainty.

Unexercised options add $1.0B+ upside (e.g., HII $860M, Leidos Biomed $449M, Alvarez $101M ceiling) across 10 contracts.

Extensions to 2026-2041 in 12 contracts enable backlog compounding in infrastructure/health/defense.

Small/disadvantaged firms with $1.1B obligations (50%+ outlays) offer undervalued entry vs. primes amid set-aside wins.

$1.0B+ in GSA/NPS/CDC builds (ports, campuses, pipelines) with 75% avg outlay show sustained capex despite firm fixed risks.

Leidos/HII/GSA awards total $1.8B+ with cost-plus stability and 20-year horizons counter tech obsolescence via options.

8/15 awards to small/SDB/HUBZone firms ($1.6B value) via competed set-asides signal scalable growth in IT/remediation.

{"entity"=>"Leidos Holdings, Inc.", "reason"=>"$1.27B across aviation/health/engineering with 2041 tailwind dominates 30% of alert value.", "trigger"=>"FY26 option exercises >$500M"}

{"entity"=>"Brasfield & Gorrie LLC", "reason"=>"$382M GSA construction duo at 0-75% outlay tests firm fixed execution to 2029.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration or mod requests"}

{"entity"=>"HII Mission Technologies", "reason"=>"$493M GSA with $860M options and $0 outlay flags funding catalyst potential.", "trigger"=>"Initial outlays >$100M"}

{"entity"=>"Remote Medicine Inc.", "reason"=>"$484M USAID HIV kits (54% outlay) as small biz leader to 2026 with $77M options.", "trigger"=>"Extension or follow-on awards"}