Contract Deobligations Alert — January 24, 2026

RTX, General Dynamics, and Honeywell capture 62% of total value in cost-plus and FFP contracts for NASA Goddard IT, Coast Guard telecom sustainment, and FAA enroute facilities, with $385M already outlayed signaling revenue commitment.

NW Construction locks full $92M FFP obligation (50% outlayed) for dam replacement through 2028, highlighting execution in heavy civil amid full options exercise.

Caltech and U. Arizona secure $342M in cost-plus/no-fee obligations for AMMOS and OSIRIS-REx missions, with 85-90% outlayed but minimal public equity exposure.

Long performance periods (2026-2028) across 83% of value expose to delays, with FFP structures (55% of total) risking contractor overruns on $551M.

Partial outlays (avg. 60% of obligations) and zero outlays in GD contract signal potential funding delays amid 5-9 year horizons.

$80M unexercised options (7% of total value) in Raytheon, Caltech, and U. Arizona contracts offer near-term upside if exercised.

Follow-on potential in NASA EOSDIS/JPL and FAA modernization programs, plus small biz positioning for Interior awards.

NASA awards 51% of value ($583M) to Raytheon and nonprofits for EOSDIS and mission ops through 2027, underscoring sustained federal IT/R&D spend.

DOT/DHS/Interior allocate 49% ($551M) for FAA facilities, Coast Guard telecom, and dam repairs through 2028 via FFP awards.

{"entity"=>"RTX (Raytheon)", "reason"=>"$253M EOSDIS ceiling with $23M options gap and $211M outlayed signals largest single backlog addition.", "trigger"=>"option exercise or extension beyond 2026"}

{"entity"=>"General Dynamics Mission Systems", "reason"=>"$239M FFP with zero outlays post-2021 award flags funding ramp risk/opportunity.", "trigger"=>"initial outlay disbursement"}

{"entity"=>"Honeywell", "reason"=>"$220M FAA award with $93M remaining through 2028 offers multi-year visibility.", "trigger"=>"outlay acceleration or program expansion"}